Iraq Faces Test Over Islamic State Cells and Armed Factions After US Withdrawal

As US forces complete their withdrawal from Iraq, the country is entering a new phase of overlapping security, political and regional challenges. The focus is shifting from the foreign military presence to Iraq’s ability to contain militant threats and assert control over armed groups.

Concerns over renewed activity by Islamic State cells remain central to the security outlook. Preventing those cells from exploiting the transition will be a key test of the Iraqi state’s ability to maintain stability.

At the same time, the growing influence of Iran-aligned armed factions presents a separate challenge. Their power places the question of who controls weapons at the heart of Iraq’s post-withdrawal political debate.

Bringing arms exclusively under state authority would require confronting the gap between formal government power and the influence of factions operating beyond its control. The issue is therefore not only a security task, but also a contest over the state’s authority.

Iraq must also navigate regional tensions without being drawn into a wider conflict. Its challenge is to address the threat from Islamic State cells while ensuring that armed factions do not pull the country into confrontations beyond its borders.