Latvia Looks to Ukraine’s Fate Through the Lens of Its Russian Past

Latvia’s concerns about a possible Russian attack are rooted in a history shared with its Baltic neighbours, where relations with Moscow have been shaped by subjugation and the loss of property.

That experience gives the war in Ukraine a particular resonance. For Latvia, the prospect of Russian aggression is not simply a new security challenge, but the possibility of a familiar pattern returning.

Latvia’s NATO membership provides the central framework for its defence. Yet the contrast between that alliance protection and fears of Russian military power leaves the country confronting difficult questions about its security.

Public opinion is divided as Latvia watches Ukraine’s fate. That division adds a domestic dimension to a geopolitical concern grounded in the Baltic states’ shared experience with Russia.

A future Russian attack remains a possibility rather than an established outcome. Through the historical lens described, however, such an assault would be seen less as a break in relations than as a continuation of past coercion.