Coalition Exit Puts Iraq’s Armed Factions and State Authority to the Test

Iraq has entered a new security phase following the completion of the withdrawal of US forces from their last bases, shifting attention to Baghdad’s ability to take full responsibility for the country’s security.

The end of the international coalition’s mission also raises a question for armed factions: whether the departure of foreign forces removes the justification they have used for maintaining weapons outside state control.

For Baghdad, the challenge goes beyond the withdrawal itself. Bringing all weapons under state authority will test its ability to turn the security transition into effective control on the ground.

At the same time, Iraq must strengthen its capacity to confront terrorist threats and the dangers posed by rockets and drones. The departure of foreign forces does not, by itself, eliminate those risks.

The next phase will therefore hinge on whether the state can enforce its authority while building the capabilities needed to protect the country. The coalition’s exit closes one chapter, but leaves the question of armed factions’ future unresolved.