Lula’s Election Win Puts Brazil’s Rare Minerals at Centre of US-China Bargaining

Lula da Silva’s presidential election victory opens the way for Brazil to use competition between China and the United States over its rare minerals to pursue industrial development.

Lula will seek to turn that rivalry into investment in industry, job creation and technology transfers, rather than allowing Brazil’s role to remain focused on supplying raw materials.

The challenge will be to translate interest in Brazil’s mineral resources into partnerships that deliver benefits at home. Access to those resources offers a bargaining tool as the incoming leadership weighs potential deals with both powers.

Domestic opposition, however, will constrain Lula’s room to negotiate and his ability to put partnerships into practice. Securing agreements abroad will therefore be only part of the task.

Brazil’s ability to capitalise on US-China competition will depend on whether Lula can align his international ambitions with the political support needed at home.